There are some unexpected success stories in a year that IATA Director General Alexandre de Juniac branded an “annus horribilis” for aviation. And even this characterization might be an understatement. But one has to look for these small hints of hope amid widespread desperation.
For example, Dubai-based Emirates Airlines, one of the grand industry players, was no stranger to success and always in expansion mode. Not so in 2020: For months on end, there were no flights or just a fraction of normal operations. That’s something that would have been impossible to imagine only months before. It’s been a year like no other.
“In the passenger business, we are now just at 18% of revenues we had last year,” Emirates President Sir Tim Clark told DW.
But even that isn’t a cause for desperation. Emirates has found other business opportunities, like air cargo. Traditionally, selling cargo space in the bellies of passenger airlines was a kind of add-on. This year, with far fewer flights operating, cargo capacity dried up too.
Looking on the bright side
Many other established supply chains were also disrupted due to the pandemic, prompting Emirates — and many others — to start removing economy class seats from their aircraft to transport cargo. “Our cargo revenues have gone through the roof,” said Clark. “We exceeded revenues from last year, when the entire fleet was flying.”
An A380 from Emirates. Impossible to see from the outside it if is carrying passengers or cargo
“At some point, about 80% of our revenue was cargo, although passenger numbers are starting to come back again. But cargo is really what is keeping us going,” the long-serving head of Emirates explained. In addition, cargo makes up about 60% of total revenues compared to just 10% last year.
One example Clark gave was of a US car manufacturer whose tires were normally manufactured in Thailand. As production was shut due to the pandemic, the company chartered an Airbus A380 from Emirates to fly 40 tons of unprocessed rubber from Bangkok to Atlanta.
“We are getting some very bizarre requests for bespoke cargo operations,” he told DW. “It is highly lucrative because they are paying top dollar for it, and it was worth it for us to fly an A380 all that distance.”
For Boeing 2021 may also be a better year, since the problematic 737 MAX is now back in the air
Back to the billions
When the pandemic first struck, the raison d’être for aviation disappeared almost overnight and came right after a record year in 2019. This year, airlines have carried barely a third of last year’s 4.5 billion passengers. The industry is still reeling from €100 billion ($122 billion) in losses, according to International Air Transport Association (IATA), an airline lobby group.
Ask any airline CEO for their predictions for 2021 and you will receive answers of cautious optimism. “2021 will be a better year,” said IATA boss Alexandre de Juniac. The industry association predicts losses of just 40% of 2020 figures.
“I am sure we will see a significant upturn in the course of next year,” Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr told Germany’s Wirtschaftswoche magazine. He believes his airline will achieve half of 2019’s passenger levels next year and maybe up to 70% in the summer.
Tourists in the driver’s seat
Martin Gauss, German CEO of Latvia’s flag carrier Air Baltic, is also anticipating a better year. “I believe our industry will bounce back in March, depending on restrictions that may still remain,” he told DW. “It [recovery] will begin in short-haul, because there is a big pent-up demand.”
Leisure travelers are expected to be the main driver of demand, while the number of business travelers will be significantly lower.
The consultancy Idea Works predicts that in the best case, 19% of former business travel demand will permanently disappear. In the worst case, it could reach 36%. This would pose a fundamental problem for the airline sector, which has made a comfortable living off coveted full-fare passengers, enabling it to subsidize other, cheaper fares.
Much of the industry wants to see airports full again like here in Bangkok, Thailand
Flying with a new confidence
Spohr has a less dramatic prediction. He estimates the permanent loss of business travelers will come out at between 10% and 20%, predicting a 75% to 80% market share for leisure travelers.
As the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to endure, even with successful vaccine programs, industry insiders say it will be crucial to establish common rules for air travel. IATA has proposed a standardized app called Travel Pass, which would store individual test results and vaccination certifications.
Clark, an industry legend after over 35 years with Emirates, is adamant about a recovery. “The global economy is enormously resilient, it has taken enormous knocks in the past and it has always bounced back. This means the hub-and-spoke system where we funnel passengers through Dubai will strengthen.”
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Australians allowed quarentine-free travel to New Zealand again from 2021
New Zealand is setting up a “travel bubble” with neighboring Australia. After months of border closures due to the coronavirus pandemic, New Zealand will once again allow tourists from Australia to enter the country without quarantine requirements in the New Year. New Zealanders have been able to travel to Australia again since October without having to go into quarantine.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
After an eight-month break Aida Cruises launches cruise again
On Saturday (December 5) the first Aida cruise ship is scheduled to leave for a one-week trip to the Canary Islands. The ship, designed for 3300 passengers, will reportedly be 50 percent full. All passengers will need to provide a negative coronavirus test, no more than 72 hours old. On board, strict hygiene and distancing rules apply, and only guided shore excursions will be possible.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Australian airline to introduce obligatory vaccination
Australian airline Qantas wants to introduce compulsory vaccination for intercontinental flights. “We will require international travelers to be vaccinated before we allow them on board,” Qantas CEO Alan Joyce stated. The general terms and conditions would be adjusted accordingly. Whether this will also be a requirement for domestic flights has not yet been decided.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Hong Kong and Singapore to launch ‘travel bubble’
Both cities will launch a ‘travel bubble’ on November 22, which will allow people to move quarantine free in each direction, their governments announced on Wednesday (Nov 11), in a rare piece of good news for the pandemic-battered tourism industry. A quota of 200 residents from each city will be able to travel on one daily bubble flight to the other.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Machu Picchu is open again
Machu Picchu, the ancient Inca city in the Peruvian Andes mountains, has reopened almost eight months after it was closed down due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Peruvian authorities organized an Inca ritual to mark the reopening. To allow for distancing, a maximum of 675 tourists per day are allowed to enter the old Inca city. That is less than a third of the normal number allowed.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Rio cancels its famous carnival parade for the first time in a century
Rio de Janeiro’s famous annual Carnival spectacle will not go ahead in February. Organizers said the spread of the coronavirus in Brazil made it impossible to safely hold parades which with some seven million people celebrating are a cultural mainstay, tourism magnet and, for many, a source of livelihood. Brazil has the second highest death rate in the world after the United States and India.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Germany to enter a one-month lockdown
To curb the spread of the coronavirus pandemic the German government has announced though new measures to start Monday, November 2. The new restrictions effect the travel business as overnight stays in hotels for tourist purposes will be banned, entertainment facilities such as theaters and cinemas will be closed as will bars and restaurants, which will only be allowed to offer take out services.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Nuremberg cancels Christmas market
The city announced on Monday (Oct.26) that this decision had been made in view of the rapidly increasing number of coronavirus cases. The mayor explained that it was to be assumed that in the near future the Covid-19 traffic light in Nuremberg will change to dark red. “Against this background, we think it would be the wrong signal to go ahead with the annual Christkindlesmarkt Christmas market.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Canary Islands no longer a coronavirus risk area
The Canary Islands are no longer on the list of corona risk areas, the Robert Koch Institute announced on Thursday (Oct. 22). The abolition of the travel warning for the Canary Islands should above all please tour operators. For them, the islands off the coast of Africa with their year-round summer climate are one of the most important sources of hope for the winter season.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Cuba re-opens to international tourism
Starting October 15, some of the Caribbean state have been reopened for international flights, with Havana a notable exception. Every visitor is tested for the coronavirus upon arrival, and a team of doctors is available in every hotel. The German vacation airline Condor plans to offer flights to Cuba’s most popular tourist destination, the Varadero peninsula, starting October 31.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Japan, South Korea among next in line for Australia travel bubble
Discussions are underway between Australia and low-risk countries across Asia and the Pacific to lift coronavirus travel restrictions, but the government has warned that travel to the US and Europe may not be an option until 2022. From Friday, Australia will open its international borders for the first time since March, allowing visitors from New Zealand to travel to the country quarantine-free.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Global cruise ship association to require coronavirus tests for all
The cruise industry has decided to make coronavirus testing mandatory for all guests and crew members aboard cruise ships. The Cruise Lines International Association, the world’s largest such organization, announced on October 8 that passengers can only board ships by providing proof of a negative test result. All member shipping companies worldwide must now comply with this rule.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
German government declares all of Belgium and Iceland risk areas
In the wake of significant increases in coronavirus infection figures in Europe, Berlin has announced further EU countries as risk areas for travelers. In addition to Belgium and Iceland, additional areas of France and Great Britain, including all of Northern Ireland and Wales, were also classified as risk areas on September 30.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Thailand to slowly restart tourism with flight from China
Thailand is to receive its first foreign vacationers when a flight from China arrives next week, marking the gradual restart of a vital tourism sector battered by coronavirus travel curbs, a senior official said on Tuesday. The first flight will carry some 120 tourists from Guangzhou, flying directly to the resort island of Phuket.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Taj Mahal reopens for tourists
India’s most famous building was closed for six months, but since Monday ( September 21) it can be visited again, under strict restrictions. Only 5000 online tickets will be issued per day. There are temperature checks at the entrance. Selfies are allowed, group photos are prohibited. The Taj Mahal is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and is normally visited by 8 million people every year.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Germany extends travel warnings to include Budapest, Vienna, Amsterdam
The Foreign Ministry has reacted to higher numbers of coronavirus infections on September 16 by issuing further travel warnings, including Vienna and Budapest. The province of North Holland with Amsterdam as well as South Holland with the cities of The Hague and Rotterdam are also affected. New risk areas were also identified in the Czech Republic, Romania, Croatia, France, and Switzerland.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Historical sales losses in global tourism
Because of the coronavirus pandemic, the tourism sector has suffered a loss of 460 billion dollars (388 billion euros) from January to June, the World Tourism Organization reported in Madrid. The loss of sales was five times higher than during the international financial and economic crisis of 2009, and the total number of tourists worldwide fell by 65 percent in the first half of the year.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Germany issues further European travel warnings
Germany’s Foreign Office has warned against unnecessary tourism to Czech capital, Prague, and the Swiss cantons Geneva and Vaud (Vaud). This also applies to the French Mediterranean island of Corsica, the French regions Auvergne-Rhones-Alpes (around Lyon), Nouvelle-Aquitaine (around Bordeaux) and Occitania (around Toulouse) as well as more Croatian Adriatic areas, such as the city of Dubrovnik.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Berlin to start ‘differentiated system’ for travel warnings
The German government has extended its travel warning for around 160 countries through September 30. The advisory applies to “third countries” — i.e. countries that are not members of the EU or associated with the Schengen area. From October 1st, a “differentiated system” will apply, in which individual travel and safety information will be given for each country.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Australia’s borders to stay shut into December
Australia has extended its travel restrictions for a further three months. The borders will remain closed for visitors from abroad until at least December 17. However, the government announced that domestic travel will soon be allowed for residents of the country. An exception will be the state of Victoria, with its metropolis Melbourne, for which a lockdown has been in place since early July.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Germany extends global travel warning
The German government has extended the travel warning for around 160 countries outside the European Union by two weeks until September 14. A spokeswoman for the German Foreign Ministry explained the move on Wednesday (Aug 26) with rising coronavirus infection rates. “The situation will not relax sufficiently by mid-September to be able to lift the worldwide travel warning,” she said.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
First Mediterranean cruise has set sail
With 2,500 instead of 6,000 passengers, the MSC Grandiosa left the port of Genoa on August 16. Stops on the seven-day voyage include Naples, Palermo and Valletta. Passengers and crew were tested for coronavirus before boarding, and body temperature is to be checked on a daily basis. Rival cruise company Costa will not be offering Mediterranean cruises again until September.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Germany declares most of Spain high-risk area
Germany’s health and interior ministries have agreed that all of Spain — apart from the Canary Islands — is now a high-risk area due to a surge in cases. Spain said it was closing night clubs across the country. Restaurants, bars and similar venues would need to close by 1 a. m. and would not be allowed to take in new guests after midnight.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
COVID-19 deals tourism in Berlin a heavy blow
In the first six months of 2020, 59% fewer tourists came to Berlin than in the previous year. The Statistics Office said on August 10 that 2.7 million guests had visited Berlin, the lowest number since 2004. The slump was even worse for foreign tourists: two thirds stayed away. Since June, the figures have been recovering and are at 30 to 40% of the previous year.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Compulsory COVID-19 tests on entry into Germany
Anyone entering Germany from a high-risk area must take a coronavirus test from August 8, after an order by Health Minister Jens Spahn. Currently, many countries are classified as risk areas, including the United States and Brazil. In the European Union, Luxembourg, the Belgian region of Antwerp and the Spanish regions of Aragon, Catalonia and Navarre were risk areas as of early August.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Setback for cruise holidays
Norwegian cruise operator Hurtigruten has stopped all cruises on August 3 until further notice after an outbreak of the coronavirus on one of its ships. At least 40 passengers and crew members on the Roald Amundsen tested positive for COVID-19. Meanwhile, German cruise line Aida Cruises has also postponed its planned restart due to the lack of necessary permits.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Nepal reopens Mount Everest for climbers amid COVID-19
Despite coronavirus uncertainty, Nepal has reopened Mount Everest for the autumn trekking and climbing season. To boost the struggling tourism sector the government will permit international flights to land in the country from August 17. The Himalayan country shut its borders in March just ahead of the busy spring season when hundreds of mountaineers usually flock to the country.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Amsterdam wants fewer weekend visitors
Concerned over a possible second wave of coronavirus, Amsterdam has requested that tourists not visit the Dutch capital on weekends. Potential day-trippers should come between Monday and Thursday, the city said on July 23. The tourist influx has swelled to such a degree that recommended social distancing of 1.5 meters between people is currently not possible in the city center.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Crowd management in alpine idyll
In order to manage tourist throngs amid the pandemic, Bavaria’s Economy Minister Hubert Aiwanger is planning a live digital guiding system for visitors. Clogged streets, wild campers and overcrowding on hiking trails in the Alps — this brings popular regions such as Lake Tegernsee (photo) to their limits. The live update system is primarily intended to redirect day-trippers to less full areas.
Coronavirus: The consequences for tourism
Flights overshadowed by fear
Holiday flights within Europe are on the move again, with passengers sitting close together. According to an opinion poll by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), 62% of those questioned are afraid of being infected by passengers in the next seat. This was identified by IATA as the main reason for the decline in willingness to travel, which is now only 45%.
